Scott Bradford: Off on a Tangent

Election Analysis: A Mandate for Compromise

Posted

On November 6, 2012, the American people went to the polls and seemingly lent their endorsement to the status quo.

The Democratic Party did make gains in Congress, undoing some of the Republican Party’s shakiest 2010 wins, but the balance of power in Washington is largely unchanged. President Barack Obama (D) gets another four years in the White House, the Democratic Party gets another two years leading the Senate, and the Republican Party gets another two years running the House of Representatives. It’s safe to say that there won’t be any large partisan initiatives coming through any time soon; our government will only be able to act on new legislation when there is at least some cross-party support. As I’ve said before, I think that this kind of gridlock is a good thing.

I suspect that many voters remember what one-party rule was like in the first two years of the Obama presidency . . . and, before that, most of the first six years of the George W. Bush (R) presidency. Generally speaking, the worst policies come about when a single party runs the show.

When Obama was elected president in 2008, he received nearly fifty-three percent of the popular vote and won the electoral college vote in a 365-173 landslide. Although this was a solid win, it did not come with a resounding mandate for sweeping public policy changes except in the economic area—an area where he actually ended up making no significant changes whatsoever. This time around, he has won reelection by a narrower margin—less than fifty-one percent in the popular vote, and a smaller (though still impressive) 332-206 margin in the electoral college. This smaller margin is more notable than it may sound. Obama is the first president in modern history to win reelection with fewer votes than he earned when first elected. Uniquely among two-term presidents, he comes into his second term with a lesser mandate than the one he had in the beginning. He lost more supporters than he gained during his first term, and has further polarized an already-polarized electorate.

Read more . . .

I, Pencil

Posted

The Competitive Enterprise Institute has produced an excellent short video called I, Pencil, which is adapted from a 1958 essay by Leonard E. Read. Additional related videos are available at ipencilmovie.org.

The video is a succinct illustration of how millions of people are involved, directly or indirectly, in the production of something as simple as a pencil. And this massive effort comes about through the voluntary cooperation of individuals making economic choices, not through the dictation of some central planning office.

It’s well worth six-and-a-half minutes of your time.

Election 2012 Analysis: Reviewing My Performance

Posted
Election Central

I will have an analysis of the 2012 election results coming up in the next day or two, after more numbers are in and I have a better feel for why things went the way they did. But before we get to that, I wanted to first review Off on a Tangent’s election coverage and identify what went well and what didn’t. First I’ll be looking at the purely ‘technical’ side of my coverage, how I think it worked, and what I think can be improved. Second, I’ll look at errata and mistakes that cropped up on election night itself. Lastly, I’ll get into my predictions regarding the election itself and how they compared to the actual outcome.

I provided much more ‘intense’ coverage before the election and on election night itself than I have ever done before, and I’m proud of how it worked out. But I know it’s not perfect. My thoughts are below, but please chime-in below with what you liked, what you didn’t, and what you’d like to see next time around.

Read more . . .

Election 2012 Results (Final)

Posted
Updated

U.S. Presidential Electors

Barack Obama (D)
Electors: 332

California (55)
Colorado (9)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
D.C. (3)
Florida (29)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (20)
Iowa (6)
Maine (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (11)
Michigan (16)
Minnesota (10)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
New Jersey (14)
New Mexico (5)
New York (29)
Ohio (18)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (20)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Virginia (13)
Washington (12)
Wisconsin (10)

Mitt Romney (R)
Electors: 206

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arizona (11)
Arkansas (6)
Georgia (16)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (38)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

Ballot Races
U.S. President (Virginia)
Virgil Goode (C):0.34%
Gary Johnson (L):0.81%
Barack Obama (D):51.11%
Mitt Romney (R):47.24%
Jill Stein (G):0.22%
Other:0.28%
U.S. Senate, VA
George Allen (R):46.93%
Tim Kaine (D):52.83%
Other:0.25%
U.S. House, VA-10th
Kristin Cabral (D):38.73%
Kevin Chisholm (I):2.69%
Frank Wolf (R):58.37%
Other:0.22%
Ballot Issues
Virginia Property Amendment
Yes:74.45%
No:25.55%
Virginia Veto Amendment
Yes:81.91%
No:18.09%
Loudoun Fire Bonds
Yes:78.87%
No:21.13%
Loudoun School Bonds
Yes:67.92%
No:32.08%

Election LiveBlog (Archived)

  • Off on a Tangent’s live election night coverage begins at 6:00 p.m. on November 6, 2012, and will continue until at least 1:00 a.m. Stay tuned.
  • November 6, 2012;6:00 p.m. ET: I’m now kicking-off the Off on a Tangent live election coverage. Stay tuned through the evening as I publish live results for all races in-which I am eligible to vote, including the presidential race, and bring you important updates from important races nationwide.
  • 6:05 p.m. ET: Polls in the Eastern Time Zone sections of Indiana and Kentucky have already closed, but polls in the Central Time Zone are still open. Results from those states are starting to trickle in, but I will not make any calls in a state until all of its polls are closed. In other words, don’t expect any concrete results until after 7:00 p.m.
  • 6:11 p.m. ET: Around the web you’ll start seeing a lot of stuff about exit polls and turnout from each side, trying to make themselves look stronger or feel better. Don’t let them concern you. And don’t let them get your hopes up either. Data means nothing without context.
  • 6:38 p.m. ET: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia’s polls all close at 7:00 p.m. In addition, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia’s polls close at 7:30 p.m. You can expect many (but not all) of these states to get called for one candidate or the other within the hour.
  • 6:55 p.m. ET: And the fun is about to begin.
  • 7:01 p.m. ET: Making our first calls of the evening. Lots more to come.
  • 7:24 p.m. ET: I’m continuing to monitor the results in the presidential election. In addition, I’m waiting for numbers to start coming in for all the other races and ballot issues I’m following. The Virginia State Board of Elections has not published any returns yet. I expect them to start trickling in soon.
  • 7:40 p.m. ET: Virginia results are starting to trickle in. I’m still unable to call five states where the polls closed at 7:00 or 7:30 p.m. Seventeen states and the District of Columbia’s polls close at 8:00 p.m., and one more state closes at 8:30 p.m. I expect to be making many calls over the next hour.
  • 7:46 p.m. ET: If you are following the Virginia State Board of Elections results directly, please be aware that they [inexplicably] have two separate results sites. One of them, located at http://electionresults.virginia.gov, seems to be getting data and that is what I am monitoring now. Their other site, which is linked from the SBE web site’s menu, doesn’t seem to be receiving updates. Go figure.
  • 8:02 p.m. ET: Making a number of calls among the states where polls closed at 8:00 p.m.
  • 8:23 p.m. ET: Virginia returns are now being published pretty rapidly by the State Board of Elections. Not quite ready to make any calls in the state and local races yet.
  • 8:42 p.m. ET: There is very little indication so far as to which way this thing is going. Lots of conflicting and preliminary data that can be ignored. So far, the only states with clear results are states that were already considered ‘safe’ for one candidate or the other. The ‘swing states’ are all still up-in-the-air.
  • 8:57 p.m. ET: Another thirteen states’ polls close at 9:00 p.m. We also still have seven states where polls closed earlier in the evening that are still too close (or too early) to call.
  • 9:04 p.m. ET: CNN, ABC, Fox, and probably others are calling North Dakota for Mitt Romney. However, polls are not yet closed in North Dakota, so this call appears to have been made in violation of industry standards. North Dakota’s polls do not close until 11:00 p.m. Eastern time.
  • 9:07 p.m. ET: CNN is reporting that the Republican Party will maintain a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
  • 9:23 p.m. ET: Pennsylvania and Michigan both go for Obama, which was not unexpected but some media outlets were treating them as swing states. The real swing states are still too close or too early to call.
  • 9:28 p.m. ET: Wisconsin goes for Obama, the first real swing state to be called. This is an early indicator that the ‘Romney landslide’ scenario, which I estimated had a fifteen percent chance of playing out, will probably not happen. The calls so-far are consistent with either my first (narrow Romney win) or second (narrow Obama win) prediction scenarios.
  • 9:31 p.m. ET: Fox News projects that the Republican Party doesn’t just maintain its majority in the House, but gains seats as well.
  • 9:53 p.m. ET: Off on a Tangent can now project that both Virginia ballot issues and both Loudoun County Bond Referendums have PASSED.
  • 10:15 p.m. ET: CNN projects that the Democratic Party will maintain a majority in the U.S. Senate.
  • 10:40 p.m. ET: Off on a Tangent can project that Representative Frank Wolf (R) has been reelected and will continue to represent Virginia’s 10th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.
  • 11:03 p.m. ET: A bunch of new calls now that the west coast states’ polls have closed. The only state with its polls still open at this time is Alaska, which will not close its westernmost precincts until 1:00 a.m Eastern. Seven states remain either too close to call or too early to call.
  • 11:06 p.m. ET: Off on a Tangent can project that former Governor Tim Kaine (D) has been elected to represent Virginia in the United States Senate.
  • 11:15 p.m. ET: President Obama has won Ohio.
  • 11:17 p.m. ET: Off on a Tangent projects that President Barack Obama has been reelected.
  • November 7, 2012; 12:25 a.m. ET: I’ve called all states except Alaska (where the polls have not yet closed), Florida, and Virginia. Obama is polling slightly ahead in both Florida and Virginia, but the races there are still too close to call. If Obama wins Florida, Virginia, or both, he would significantly outperform my predicted ‘narrow Obama win’ scenario, which I estimated had a forty percent chance of occurring.
  • 12:42 a.m. ET: Virginia goes narrowly for Obama.
  • 12:50 a.m. ET: Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) has conceded the election to President Barack Obama (D), and will likely be making a concession speech shortly.
  • 12:55 a.m. ET: Romney is now making his concession speech at his campaign headquarters in Boston, Massachusetts.
  • 1:35 a.m. ET: Obama is now making his reelection acceptance speech at his campaign headquarters in Chicago, Illinois.
  • 2:32 a.m. ET: Obama maintains a narrow lead in Florida, but it is close enough that I am not comfortable making a call at this time. Florida is the only state not yet called. In the Virginia state and local races, there are still thirty precincts (including provisional ballot precincts) outstanding.
  • 2:35 a.m. ET: My live coverage is ending at this time. I will continue to update the results with the last few outstanding items in the coming days as time permits. Thanks for tuning in!
  • November 9, 2012; 10:10 a.m. ET: Any day now, Florida. Still too close to call, so we don’t have a final electoral count yet. There are also still thirteen precincts outstanding in Virginia, but I don’t expect any race to move my any more than half a percentage point (so, due to rounding, the worst you should expect to see is a one-point shift). I hope to be able to close out my coverage with totally final results soon.
  • 12:35 p.m. ET: I’m calling Florida for Obama. Even if Romney wins outstanding provisional ballots by a significant amount, which is unlikely anyway, he still would not be able to close the gap. This completes the electoral map, with Obama ahead of Romney by 332-206. Periodic updates to the state races will continue until all Virginia precincts have reported.
  • November 12; 1:00 p.m. ET: Virginia results have slowed to a trickle, but there are still six laggard precincts that have not yet reported results. The problem jurisdictions that have not reported all of their results are Bedford County (1 precinct), Fairfax County (2 precincts), Prince William County (1 precinct), Richmond City (1 precinct), and Roanoke City (1 precinct).
  • November 15; 1:40 p.m. ET: Four Virginia precincts still haven’t reported their election results. The laggards are Bedford County (1 precinct), Fairfax County (2 precincts), and Prince William County (1 precinct). I can’t call my results final until all precincts have reported.
  • November 23; 10:40 a.m. ET: The same four precincts still haven’t reported. It’s been almost three weeks since the election. I’m not waiting any more. I’m calling these results final and closing our coverage.

I Voted; Make Sure You Do Too!

Posted

I voted this morning at my local polling place in South Riding, Virginia. The lines were long, but not overwhelming. Turnout seems to be high, as expected.  I expect the lines will grow longer as the day progresses, especially near the end of the day. The Virginia polls close at 7:00 p.m., and anybody in line at that time will be permitted to cast their ballot.

All eligible voters should head to the polls today (if they did not take advantage of early voting). Research the candidates and issues, make your decision, and be counted. We are very blessed to live in a country where we have the right to shape our government.

Be sure to come back to Off on a Tangent this evening as the results come in.

Scott Bradford is a writer and technologist who has been putting his opinions online since 1995. He believes in three inviolable human rights: life, liberty, and property. He is a Catholic Christian who worships the trinitarian God described in the Nicene Creed. Scott is a husband, nerd, pet lover, and AMC/Jeep enthusiast with a B.S. degree in public administration from George Mason University.