Virginia Election Scenarios

Tomorrow, November 5, Virginians will head to the polls to elect a new governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. In addition, each of the one-hundred delegate districts will be voting for their representative in the House of Delegates, and there will be a number of local referendums and offices on ballots across the state. Based on available polls and other information, I think there are a few possible scenarios that could play out tomorrow in the gubernatorial race. This piece will focus on that race, but I will also spend a bit of time at the end on the ‘down-ticket’ races being followed by Off on a Tangent this year.

Before diving into the scenarios, here is the bottom line. Below is a custom polling chart that I made using the tools made available by HuffPost Pollster. I started from the ‘official’ HuffPost model, but narrowed it to polls that consider ‘likely voters’ (as opposed to ‘registered voters’ or ‘all adults’). In addition, I excluded some pollsters that are affiliated with the Democratic and Republican parties, or have an obvious history of unreliability and partisan bias. I cross-referenced on my own with the RealClearPolitics poll aggregation, which paints a similar picture.

In general, I think this chart accurately reflects the state of the race . . . although I am not confident about the up-tick in Terry McAuliffe’s (D) numbers right at the end, which is based entirely on one poll. If I was in charge of the algorithm painting the blue line, I would have it bent slightly lower from where it is at the last point.

Customized Poll Chart (via HuffPost Pollster)
Customized Poll Chart (via HuffPost Pollster)

Nena the Dog Visits the Beach

Nena is about eleven months old now, and we recently took her to the beach for the first time. She was nervous at first, but before too long she was running around like a psycho. She thought she needed to jump over the waves as they came in. She was completely unconcerned by the horses, and by the fact that my finger was over part of the lens for the last part of the video.

Governor of Virginia, 2013

Seal of Virginia

In the open race to serve as Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia, Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R-VA) faces-off against Terry McAuliffe (D) and Robert Sarvis (L). The Constitution of Virginia prohibits governors from serving multiple consecutive terms, so incumbent Governor Bob McDonnell (R-VA) is currently ineligible for reelection.

The office of governor is established by the Constitution of Virginia, and the office holder’s primary duty is to serve as the chief of the commonwealth’s executive branch of government. The governor must report on the state of the commonwealth to the General Assembly, convene the legislature when a special session is called, ensure that state laws are executed properly, and serve as commander-in-chief of the state militia. Additionally, governors have the power to submit recommendations to the General Assembly, veto bills (in whole or in part with a line-item veto), commute fines and issue pardons, and restore voting rights to convicted felons.

Virginia governors must be at least thirty years old, citizens of the Commonwealth of Virginia, and have been a resident and registered voter in the commonwealth for five years preceding the date of the election. They are elected to four-year terms and there are no term limits, although governors are prohibited from serving consecutive terms. Virginia is the only state in the United States that does not allow governors to stand for reelection and serve consecutive terms.

Lieutenant Governor of Virginia, 2013

Seal of Virginia

In the open race to serve as the Lieutenant Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia, the Reverend E.W. Jackson (R) is up against state Senator Ralph Northam (D-VA 6th). Incumbent Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling (R-VA) is not seeking reelection, having lost his Republican primary candidacy for governor.

The office of lieutenant governor is established by the Constitution of Virginia, and the office holder’s primary duty is to serve as the president of the Senate of Virginia. The lieutenant governor may vote in the state senate only to break ties. In addition, the lieutenant governor is first in the line of gubernatorial succession, and would serve as governor in the event of the governor’s death or incapacitation. Because Virginia governors may only serve one consecutive term, lieutenant governors are typically nominated by their parties to serve as the gubernatorial candidate in the following election cycle.

Virginia lieutenant governors must be at least thirty years old, citizens of the Commonwealth of Virginia, and have been a resident and registered voter in the commonwealth for five years preceding the date of the election. They are elected to four-year terms and there are no term limits.

The Senate of Virginia is made up of senators elected from forty districts across the entire commonwealth. It is currently split evenly with twenty Democrats and twenty Republicans. The next senate election will be held in 2015, so the office of lieutenant governor is unusually important this year. Virginians’ votes in this race will determine which party holds a [razor-slim] majority in the Virginia Senate.

Attorney General of Virginia, 2013

Seal of Virginia

In the open race to serve as the Attorney General of the Commonwealth of Virginia, state Senator Mark Herring (D-VA 33rd) faces-off against state Senator Mark Obenshain (R-VA 26th). Incumbent Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R-VA) has chosen not to seek reelection and is running as the Republican candidate for Governor of Virginia.

The attorney general has constitutional authority for providing legal advice to the state government, including the governor and the General Assembly, for defending the state in lawsuits, and for defending the constitutionality of state laws. The attorney general is also second in the line of gubernatorial succession, following the lieutenant governor. Traditionally, the attorney general’s office is used as a political stepping-stone for higher office and, as such, elections for the office are overly politicized. In considering the Off on a Tangent endorsement, I only consider issues that are particularly germane to the role of the attorney general—public safety, civil liberty, and legal competence.

Virginia attorney generals must be at least thirty years old, citizens of the United States, and hold the qualifications to be a ‘judge of court record.’ They are elected to four-years terms and there are no term limits.

Scott Bradford is a writer and technologist who has been putting his opinions online since 1995. He believes in three inviolable human rights: life, liberty, and property. He is a Catholic Christian who worships the trinitarian God described in the Nicene Creed. Scott is a husband, nerd, pet lover, and AMC/Jeep enthusiast with a B.S. degree in public administration from George Mason University.